Friday, 3 April 2015

Vote Tory - Get Labour - Vote Labour - Get Tory - Vote UKIP - Get UKIP (YouGov regional poll's 03/04/2015)

Over the last couple of weeks we have heard an awful lot about how "the UKIP vote will put Ed Miliband or David Cameron in Downing Street", supposedly depriving parties of vital votes that are needed to win in their areas.

A kind of "God given right" to votes if you will, demanded of by the leaders of the Conservative and Labour Parties.

So over the last 24 hours I have decided to look at it from a UKIP perspective.
In what areas does the Labour vote instead of UKIP give the Conservatives an MP, and in what areas do the Conservative vote instead of UKIP give Labour an MP.

I have chosen to use the last 24 hours of YouGov Regional polling which can be viewed here for my results.
I am not saying the YouGov finds are accurate, however they are the easiest most accessible regional results and give some form of an answer in most constituencies.

Please note: I have used the lowest party poll rating for each party to calculate percentages (6 areas didn't have polling data at the time of publication).

The results are quite startling, and if the 2 main party leaders saw them and acknowledged them, I dare say some comments they have made of late would be put to bed.




Truro & Falmouth

Vote Labour, Get Tory.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 26.7%
UKIP 17.1%
Labour 12.6%


Plymouth Moor View

Vote Conservative, Get Labour.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Labour 42.5%
UKIP 23.3%
Conservatives 19.6%


Bridgwater & West Somerset

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 31.5%
UKIP 17.3%
Labour 16.3%


Bournemouth West

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 30.6%
UKIP 21%
Labour 14.2%


Bournemouth East

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 33.5%
UKIP 22.2%
Labour 12.5%


Bognor Regis & Littlehampton

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 36.1%
UKIP 23%
Labour 13.5%


East Worthing & Shoreham

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 34.6%
UKIP 22%
Labour 15.7%


Havant

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 35.8%
UKIP 21.1%
Labour 15.5%




























North Thanet

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.

Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 37.4%
UKIP 25.6%
Labour 18%


Spelthorne

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 33.5%
UKIP 26%
Labour 13.1%


Sittingbourne and Sheppey

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 36.1%
UKIP 21.2%
Labour 19.8%


Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

Vote Conservative, Get Labour.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Labour 24.2%
UKIP 19.8%
Conservatives 16.2%


Banbury

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 38.2%
UKIP 21.3%
Labour 17.7%


Hornchurch and Upminster

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 37.4%
UKIP 24.5%
Labour 16.6%


Castle Point

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 29.4%
UKIP 17.5%
Labour 14.4%


Southend West

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 32%
UKIP 23.1%
Labour 13.2%


Wyre Forest

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 24.5%
UKIP 22.2%
Labour 12%


Bromsgrove

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 28.2%
UKIP 20.7%
Labour 20.6%


Rochford and Southend East

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 31.8%
UKIP 28.9%
Labour 18.5%


South Staffordshire

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 37.5%
UKIP 20.1%
Labour 17.5%


South Suffolk

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 33.3%
UKIP 24%
Labour 12.7%


Meriden

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 36.3%
UKIP 21.6%
Labour 18.6%


West Suffolk

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 34.9%
UKIP 26.4%
Labour 13.7%


North Shropshire

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 37%
UKIP 23.8%
Labour 16.1%


Dudley North

Vote Conservative, Get Labour.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Labour 29%
UKIP 25.6%
Conservatives 16.4%


Bury St Edmunds

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 34.8%
UKIP 20%
Labour 17.4%


Ynys Mon

Vote Conservative, Get Labour.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Labour 27%
UKIP 19.2%
Conservatives 14.3%


North West Cambridgeshire

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 36.2%
UKIP 25.7%
Labour 15.5%


South West Norfolk

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 34.2%
UKIP 23.2%
Labour 17.1%


Suffolk Coastal

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 32.5%
UKIP 19.7%
Labour 15.7%


Walsall North

Vote Conservative, Get Labour.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Labour 28.8%
UKIP 22.1%
Conservatives 13.6%


Huntington

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 34.8%
UKIP 25.1%
Labour 11.6%


Mid Norfolk

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 35.7%
UKIP 23.7%
Labour 16.6%


Great Yarmouth

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 26.5%
UKIP 24.4%
Labour 23.5%


Stone

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 35.8%
UKIP 19%
Labour 18.8%


Cannock Chase

Vote Conservative, Get Labour.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Labour 25.8%
UKIP 23.8%
Conservatives 20.8%


Boston & Skegness

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 33.7%
UKIP 29%
Labour 17.9%


Broadland

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 32%
UKIP 18.4%
Labour 14.3%


Newcastle-Under-Lyme 

Vote Conservative, Get Labour.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Labour 34.5%
UKIP 19.2%
Conservatives 18.5%


Louth and Horncastle

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 35.4%
UKIP 24.4%
Labour 15.9%


Gainsborough

Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 34.6%
UKIP 21.5%
Labour 14.7%


Macclesfield
 
Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 34.3%
UKIP 18.7%
Labour 17%


Rother Valley 

Vote Conservative, Get Labour.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Labour 34.1%
UKIP 26.3%
Conservatives 12.1%


Beverley and Holderness
 
Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 34.3%
UKIP 18.7%
Labour 17%


East Yorkshire
 
Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 33.1%
UKIP 24.5%
Labour 18.8%


Heywood and Middleton 

Vote Conservative, Get Labour.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Labour 34%
UKIP 32.8%
Conservatives 12.1%


Ribble Valley
 
Vote Labour, Get Conservative.
Vote UKIP, Get UKIP.

Conservatives 36.6%
UKIP 22.7%
Labour 16.8%


Conclusion:

The findings really are quite startling.


If Conservative voters in the following areas voted UKIP instead of Conservative, they would deprive the Labour Party an MP in an area they have no chance of winning and are currently 3rd or worse:
  • Plymouth Moor View
  • Carmathen East & Dinefwr
  • Dudley North
  • Ynys Mon
  • Walsall North
  • Cannock Chase
  • Newcastle-Under-Lyme
  • Rother Valley
  • Heywood & Middleton
It is also worth noting that UKIP are polling to win in the following areas where they are leading Labour and the Conservatives are 3rd. So a tactical vote in these areas would further cement Labour being deprived even more MP's:

  • Dagenham & Rainham
  • Great Grimsby
  • Rotherham
If Labour Party voters in the following areas voted UKIP instead of Labour, they would deprive the Conservative Party an MP in an area they have no chance of winning and are currently 3rd or worse:
  • Truro and Falmouth
  • Bridgwater & West Somerset
  • Bournemouth West
  • Bournemouth East
  • Bognor Regis & Littlehampton
  • East Worthing & Shoreham
  • Havant
  • North Thanet
  • Spelthorne
  • Sittingbourne & Sheppey
  • Banbury
  • Hornchurch & Upminster
  • Castle Point
  • Southend West
  • Wyre Forest
  • Bromsgrove
  • Rochford & Southend East
  • South Staffordshire
  • South Suffolk
  • Meriden
  • West Suffolk
  • North Shropshire
  • Bury St Edmunds
  • Northwest Cambridgeshire
  • South West Norfolk
  • Suffolk Coastal
  • Huntington
  • Mid Norfolk
  • Great Yarmouth
  • Stone
  • Boston & Skegness
  • Broadland
  • Loath & Horncastle
  • Gainsborough
  • Macclesfield
  • Beverley & Holderness
  • East Yorkshire
  • Ribble Valley
It is also worth noting that UKIP are polling to win in the following areas where they are leading the Conservatives and the Labour Party are 3rd. So a tactical vote in these areas would further cement the Conservatives being deprived even more MP's:
  • Rochester & Strood
  • South Thanet
  • Thurrock
  • Clacton
  • Northampton South

So what can we learn from this information?
Several things.
Firstly, a vote for UKIP really is a vote for UKIP, and can get you a UKIP MP.

Second, not only are Conservative Party votes costing the Tories, Labour Party MP's, but Labour Party votes are also costing the Labour Party, Conservative Party MP's.

So next time David Cameron or Ed Miliband tell you a vote for UKIP gets you Labour or Conservative Party MP's and the party you like the least.
Think for a second. Are they really referring to data or just trying a cheap trick to win votes.


In the YouGov poll alone it has UKIP being deprived of 48 MP's. My suggestion is people vote for who they really want to. Don't listen to the rhetoric from the media and/or the establishment parties. Because voting UKIP really WILL win UKIP and your areas MP's!



3 comments:

  1. You have put a lot of fair-minded work into this and deserve some comment. I would like to think that Labour voters are ever Labour voters because they always have voted Labour. I would like to think that Tories will do anything to undo all the good work by letting Miliband into No 10, particularly if he's to be put there by the SNP.. The question is; how does UKIP tell Tories to abandon Cameron in favour of Farage? It's only a small ideological step because most Tories agree with what Nigel is saying but dread Miliband and Co. How do WE go about spreading this word; it must start by ignoring the Votes that would place a Tory seat under a Labour backside and just focus on getting tory or UKIP backsides in as many seats as possible. If Tories see UKIP as and ally against Labour it will work. Keep this running it's invaluable to quitting the EU!

    ReplyDelete
  2. I'm ex-Labour, have voted UKIP since 2005, I expect a lot more sensible people to look at UKIP policies and think, yes, that's Common Sense! This is a very good example of how some may be swayed.

    Very informative Thomas.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Very good points you wrote here..Great stuff...I think you've made some truly interesting points.Keep up the good work.
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    ReplyDelete